Japan’s version of WrestleMania, New Japan’s year-opening annual 1/4 Tokyo Dome spectacular, is just days away. This year’s event has 10 matches scheduled with most but not all titles on the line (some will be saved for Sunday). Ahead of that event it’s time to take a look at the event and make some predictions!
(Note: As always, card subject to change last minute. I considered doing similar for 1/5 but opted not to because while the entire lineup is set, we won’t know until after 1/4 which specific matches will become title matches, there are roughly 3 such matches planned. Also, the 1/5 event will now start Saturday at 7 PM PT/10 PM ET for a pre-show)
First up, quick event overview:
Start time: Friday at 11 PM PT/Saturday at 2 AM ET for pre-show. Main show 1 hour later
How to watch:
In Japan: TV Asahi. Live and exclusive broadcast-this is the only way to watch
Outside Japan: New Japan World (monthly subscription required. $9.99/month unless subscribed through iTunes Store, Google Play or Roku, then it’s $12.99/month). Available in Japanese and English. Also available as a PPV on TrillerTV/FITE ($29.99 OR $47.99 for a combo pack that includes the 1/5 event. Includes live broadcast and unlimited on demand replays until 4/4. The 1/5 event will be available for the same prices with replays until 4/5)
Pre-show:
New Japan Ranbo
Overview: This is a staggered-entry battle royal. It’s not yet known how many entrants there will be and who they are and we may not know until event time. In past years this match went until there were 4 left and those 4 “won” and advanced to a 4-way to determine that year’s first King Of Pro Wrestling (KOPW) Champion. But that title is now dead as Great-O-Khan retired it, so this year’s will go until there is a winner and that winner will get an IWGP World Heavyweight Championship shot.
It’s pretty much impossible to predict right now beyond it’s probably a way to get the rest of the roster not already in a match onto the card. Therefore…
Prediction: Impossible to make, but I’ll just throw a name that makes sense out there. Great-O-Khan
Main show:
Match 1: IWGP Junior Heavyweight Tag Team Champions Kevin Knight & KUSHIDA vs. Francesco Akira & TJP, Kosei Fujita & Robbie Eagles and Drilla Moloney & Clark Connors in a 4-way Ladder Match
Overview: Fujita & Eagles got their title shot here by winning the Super Junior Tag League. Then United Empire got involved and it became a 3-way. More recently, Bullet Club-who Knight/KUSHIDA beat to win the titles-then demanded their rematch so it became a 4-way. After all that? TLC match proposal which ultimately led to this becoming the first Ladder Match for the titles in Tokyo Dome history. Obviously that means No DQs and the first team to grab the suspended title belts wins.
The constant changes really threw a monkey wrench into this one and makes it difficult to predict, but the one thing I like happening here is a title change. Definitely expect some Bullet Club antics to help them win, but I’m gonna roll the dice. Because TMDK also stands for The Mighty Don’t Kosei…
Prediction: Akira/TJP win the titles
Match 2: IWGP Women’s Champion Mayu Iwatani vs. AZM for the title
Overview: This has been building up in Stardom over the last couple months. A lot of foreign fans seem to think Iwatani really isn’t a fighting champion because in her roughly 20-month reign she has made “only” 8 defenses and they’re used to title matches every month if not more often. Japan’s not like that. The argument for it maybe not being contested for enough, both in New Japan and Stardom, is valid though. They have done a great job of building it up, with Iwatani mostly coming out on top in tag matches but AZM picked up some big wins down the home stretch and AZM has made it clear she must win the title and usher in a new generation at the top.
One big factor to consider here: ! Hour time limit. Not 30 minutes as is the norm for women’s title matches in Japan. That takes a realistic time limit draw off the table. And AZM really has yet to come through big in the clutch in matches like this despite being otherwise mostly dominant. However, that’s been a theme in Stardom this past week with Starlight Kid finally going from bridesmaid to bride in winning her first singles championship. Can it happen here? Absolutely. Will it happen here? It could but…
Prediction: Iwatani wins and retains the title.
Match 3: NJPW WORLD TV Champion Ren Narita vs. Jeff Cobb, Ryohei Oiwa & El Phantasmo for the title
Overview: This was originally to have been a 3-way but after making a surprise return at the end of the last tour following stepping away to battle cancer, Phantasmo was added to make this a 4-way. He definitely becomes the feel-good candidate, and this will be a fast-paced affair with only 15 minute time limits for title matches. The 4-way setup does work well for Narita, who no doubt will be playing the Bullet Club/H.O.T. shenanigans card. On paper it should be Cobb winning the title back or even Oiwa claiming his first championship, but the Souled Out one will be waiting for just the right moment to strike. And when anyone is not expecting it…
Prediction: Narita wins and retains the title. If it goes to a time limit draw, Narita retains.
Match 4: Hiroshi Tanahashi vs. EVIL
Overview: Earlier this year Tanahashi announced the news we all knew was coming but maybe didn’t want to hear anyway…the end is near. He will retire here at Tokyo Dome in 2026 and transition fuill-time into his President role after over 25 years in New Japan. That is, unless EVIL has his way. He has promised to retire Tanahashi for good here, and there had been rumblings of maybe EVIL putting his career on the line too. That doesn’t seem to be happening, but what we do know is it will be a Lumberjack Deathmatch with no countouts.
No other match on the card will probably get a bigger crowd reaction than this one. There may be no other faction in all of Japan right now that gets boos and heat from the normally-respectful Japanese crowds like Bullet Club and especially H.O.T. and if EVIL were to somehow retire Tanahashi here? They’ll tear down Tokyo Dome and bury them alive. And if Tanahashi somehow vanquishes EVIL? The greatest epic air guitar post-match performance ever? Either way this is one to really pay attention to. But we know all needs to be right in the world both here and when the end comes around next year so…
Prediction: Tanahashi wins
Match 5: NEVER Openweight Champion Shingo Takagi vs. Konosuke Takeshita for the title
Overview: This match is subject to change because if Takeshita is still the AEW International Champion coming into this match, meaning after tomorrow’s (1/1/25) episode of AEW Dynamite, it will be a Double Title match for both titles. For now the focus is about the NEVER Championship. This will also have 1/5 implications because whoever is champion after this match defends the next day against Tomohiro Ishii.
I have a feeling this will be double title which may partly render this prediction moot because either New Japan or All Elite Wrestling will be holding the other’s title hostage unless they go an hour, which likely won’t happen. While I lean towards The Dragon here over The Alpha, given the potential double-title stip I’m gonna have to play the no-finish card here and say, perhaps thanks in part to The Callous Hand Of Don…
Prediction: Draw/non-finish, both retain their respective titles
Match 6: IWGP Junior Heavyweight Champion DOUKI vs. El Desperado for the title
Overview: DOUKI has become the feel-good story of the juniors in 2024, going from primarily jobber to breakout and now champion the second half of the year. And an impressive reign too, no doubt helped by Desperado being out of action due to injuries.
This is going to be a show-stealer, no doubt, as the juniors always are. Unfortunately it also seems like a very easy prediction because Desperado is back, and it’s Tokyo Dome. DOUKI has had a great first title reign and it deserves to keep going but with the masked painted one back and the Way To The GrandMaster back on that path too, this is my slam dunk pick.
Prediction: Desperado wins the title
Match 7: IWGP Global Champion David Finlay vs. Yota Tsuji for the title
Overview: Again there are 1/5 implications here because whoever comes out of this match as champion defends in their scheduled match that day. That would mean Tsuji defends against Jack Perry if he wins or Finlay defends against Brody King if he retains.
This is my #2 slam dunk pick. Yes, Finlay has Bullet Club in his corner but, like ti or not, the next-gen rocket is firmly strapped to Tsuji. He won the New Japan Cup in 2024, didn’t win any titles but sure came close, and it feels like this title is his for the taking. He won’t get to enjoy it because Perry will see to that as part of the post-match Bullet Club beatdown but Finlay’s reign is about to get Gene Blasted to the end.
Prediction: Tsuji wins the title
Match 8: Tetsuya Naito vs. Hiromu Takahashi
Overview: After winning the World Tag League in an upset, Los Ingobernables de Japon don’t get their tag team title shot this weekend, although part of that may be due to the titles being vacated after a HENARE injury. But also because Takahashi instead wanted a single match against Naito, the first time ever this has happened.
Yes, there’s the obvious size mismatch. Takahashi can and will run circles around Naito, who maybe has the only knees in the promotion worse than Tanahashi’s. But they’ll have far and away the most entertaining match on the card and a tough one to predict. At least it’s only a 30 minute time limit, which makes it easier to pick a winner. Or not. So I’ll go…
Prediction: Time Limit Draw
Main Event: IWGP World Heavyweight Champion Zack Sabre Jr. vs. Shota Umino for the title
Overview: As great as his 2023 was, 2024 was truly the year of ZSJ. He couldn’t repeat as New Japan Cup winner but he claimed his first G1 CLIMAX and banked on himself by cashing in the title shot early instead of waiting for now and vowing to go home to London, England in October as champion. And did he ever. Tokyo Sports named him the MVP of Japanese pro wrestling in 2024 and deservedly so because although slightly undersized he is a technical superman in the ring. Dean Malenko the man of 1000 holds? ZSJ is the man of 10000! On the other side is Umino, who the foreign internet hates for a few reasons…it feels like he’s being forced on us, he aligned with and since has apparently turned on-and drawn the ire of-Jon Moxley, and also his father is head referee Red Shoes Unno.
Finally, there are also 1/5 main event implications here because whoever leaves as champion defends the title at that event. If Sabre retains, it’s against Ricochet. If Umino wins, it’s against Claudio Castagnoli. Shooter’s time will come, but one man I absolutely will not bet against is ZSJ. It’s not more a question of if he’ll win, but how, and if by submission with what crazy and seemingly impossible hold? Relax, internet, and enjoy the technical greatness here as…
Prediction: Sabre retains the title
